This section of our ACCC mid-year update provides an overview of the key developments and anticipated trends around competition and mergers for 2025 and beyond. We examined the ACCC’s evolving approach to merger reform and the expected future activities around cartel and anti-competitive conduct enforcements. We have also looked at the challenges and regulatory focus within essential services, highlighting issues around regional competition, digital connectivity and pressure on gas and electricity supply. Our analysis compares our predictions for 2025 against what the ACCC has actually achieved so far this year.

What we predicted

Merger reform

The ACCC’s focus in 2025 has been on preparing for the introduction of the new mandatory notification regime, which will take effect on 1 January 2026. While the current informal clearance regime is still available until the end of 2025, parties have been able to voluntarily notify their acquisitions under the new regime since 1 July 2025. This has been particularly relevant for more complex transactions, including global deals requiring multi-jurisdictional filings. We expected the ACCC would continue with its increased scrutiny of ‘vertical’ mergers (i.e. mergers between companies in the same industry but at different levels of the supply chain). This was expected given that all three of the outstanding cases where the ACCC released a Statement of Issue in 2024, raised vertical integration concerns. 

Cartel and anti-competitive conduct

2024 was a relatively quiet year for new proceedings in the cartel space, so we looked forward to new proceedings occurring in 2025. With the ACCC updating its immunity and cooperation policy for cartel conduct (Immunity Policy) in late 2024, we predicted there would be greater activity and prosecutions for cartel activity; however it most likely will not be until the end of 2025 or into 2026. The ACCC had said that “Our targeted improvements to the Immunity Policy offer certainty and clarity to applicants about their obligations and the way the policy is administered.” The other key proceedings we identified as one to watch was the Spotless cartel matter, given its scope and the size of the respondents. 

Essential services: telco

Heading into 2025 the ACCC appeared to be alert to the increasing reliance of consumers on telecommunication services in Australia’s digital economy. This led to an increased focus on the industry over the past few years as an essential service, and we believed this was likely to continue over the course of 2025. In 2024, competition for a number of telecommunication services, such as mobile services, in much of regional and remote Australia remained low. We predicted that misleading or anti-competitive conduct targeting regional and remote consumers would be a key focus for the ACCC in 2025, particularly as new alternative services were made available. 

Essential services: gas and energy

In 2024, wholesale costs of supplying electricity increased for retailers, which potentially indicated higher retail prices in 2024-25. This was largely driven by high contract prices in 2022, when retailers purchased contracts for the 2023-24 financial year. Additionally, despite a forecasted surplus of domestic gas supply for 2025, southern states were predicted to face seasonal shortfalls, meaning supply would depend on transporting gas from Queensland. More broadly, the East Coast gas supply is in decline, with traditional supply sources such as the Gippsland Basin depleting and investment in new supply insufficient to replace them. 

As a result of this continued upward pressure on wholesale and retail energy prices, we expected both an increase in the ACCC’s default market offer price for energy retailers for the 2025-2026 financial year as well as the ACCC continuing to closely monitor and interact with energy retailers about their pricing and practices in the retail market. 

What has the ACCC done?

Merger Reform 

The ACCC has been heavily engaged in implementing Australia’s new mandatory pre-notification merger regime, which allows voluntary notification from 1 July 2025 and becomes compulsory from 1 January 2026. They also released guidance on transitional arrangements, draft merger assessment guidelines, and draft merger process guidelines for consultation. Businesses have responded to the guidelines with a mix of caution and guarded optimism, welcoming greater clarity, faster decision-making for non-contentious deals, and improved transparency in the process. However, concerns were also raised regarding the increased regulatory burden, stricter upfront information requirements, longer lead times for transaction clearance and higher compliance costs for a greater number of deals. 

Merger Reviews

The ACCC conducted numerous merger reviews. It outlined preliminary competition concerns with DP World Australia’s proposed acquisition of Silk Logistics, but ultimately decided not to oppose it after an extensive investigation. Similarly, Qube Holdings Limited’s acquisition of MIRRAT was not opposed, subject to a court-enforceable undertaking to prevent discrimination against rivals. Other acquisitions not opposed include Vocus Group Limited’s acquisition of TPG Telecom Limited’s enterprise business, Woolworths Group Limited’s acquisition of Beak & Johnston Holdings Pty Ltd, Cleanaway Waste Management Limited’s acquisition of Citywide Service Solutions Pty Ltd, IAG’s acquisition of RACQ Insurance, and Allianz’s acquisition of RAA Insurance. Concerns were also raised regarding Elders Limited’s proposed acquisition of Delta Agribusiness.

The detailed efforts in releasing guidelines and managing the transition to the new merger regime, alongside the numerous merger reviews (some leading to withdrawals or undertakings), indicate substantial resources and strategic focus on shaping Australia's competition landscape.

Anti-Competitive Conduct

The Federal Court found oil and gas services company Qteq Pty Ltd and its executive chairman, Simon Ashton, engaged in cartel conduct by attempting to induce suppliers to share markets and rig a tender. Hard Rock Enterprises Pty Ltd admitted to engaging in resale price maintenance, requiring resellers to sell products within a specific price range. In a rare judgment against the ACCC this year, the High Court dismissed its appeal against the CFMEU and J Hutchinson Pty Ltd boycott judgment, though the ACCC remains committed to enforcing competition laws.

Essential services, telecommunications and data 

Telstra was found to have misled nearly 9,000 Belong customers by reducing broadband upload speeds without notification and maintaining original pricing. TPG Telecom Limited paid penalties for alleged non-compliance with its functional separation undertaking, specifically failing to prevent staff from accessing each other's premises unsupervised between wholesale and retail businesses. National Australia Bank Limited paid penalties totalling $751,200 for alleged breaches of the Consumer Data Right Rules, specifically for failing to accurately disclose credit limit data.

Energy and Water 

Electricity provider, Diamond Energy Pty Ltd, paid penalties for allegedly breaching the Electricity Retail Code by failing to adequately communicate pricing information to consumers. Murray-Darling Basin irrigation operator Cadell Construction Joint Water Supply Scheme Inc. admitted to breaching the Water Charge Rules by retrospectively increasing fixed charges.

The significant penalties for Telstra and in telecommunications generally, Diamond Energy in electricity, and Cadell in water, underscore the ACCC's active engagement and enforcement in essential services to ensure fair practices and accurate pricing information.

How accurate were our predictions?

Structural Reforms – Mandatory Merger Regime 

Our prediction that "a lot of the ACCC’s resources will be focussed on the significant task of completing the introduction of the new mandatory pre-notification merger regime" has been highly accurate. The extensive work on releasing transitional guidance, assessment guidelines, and process guidelines demonstrates a significant allocation of resources and commitment by the ACCC to this topic.

Cartels – More Litigation

We anticipated "more litigation" in cartel cases and the ACCC being "increasingly confident...seeking jail time against key executives". So far this year, however, we have not seen a single new prosecution for criminal cartel conduct commenced by the ACCC. Not yet, in any case.

Conclusion 

The ACCC's activities in the first half of 2025 demonstrate a vigorous and strategically focused approach to its compliance and enforcement priorities. Further, the ACCC is actively shaping the Australian competition landscape through the implementation of major merger reforms and by addressing anti-competitive conduct. Our predictions from the "Maddocks Watchdog Recap 2024" have largely been borne out, though not entirely. Time will tell whether our predictions prove accurate over the remainder of the year.