Patrick Ibbotson
Patrick is the head of the Infrastructure Sector at Maddocks and an internationally recognised expert in development and environmental law.
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As 2025 draws to a close, businesses are reflecting on a year of significant climate-related developments and preparing for what lies ahead. With Group 1 entities now navigating their first reporting cycle under the mandatory climate-related disclosure regime, climate risks and opportunities are front of mind for many businesses.
In this wrap up, we explore the key trends that have shaped climate-related risks and opportunities in 2025, and consider how these developments will influence business priorities as we move into 2026.
In September 2025, Australian Climate Service’s released the National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) and Australia's Future Climate and Hazards Report (Hazards Report). The NCRA assesses the projected risks of climate change to key systems in Australia (including natural environment, economy, trade and finance, and communities) under three warming scenarios: +1.5°C, +2°C, and +3°, based on the projections in the Hazards Report. The reports identify priority climate hazards in these key systems, which include changes in temperature, bushfires, storms and coastal erosion.
The reports’ key findings include:
While the reports assess these risks at a societal level, the continued increase in extreme weather events poses a risk to business assets, trading stock and supply chains, as well as workforce and critical infrastructure. Potential physical climate impacts on businesses include workforce disruption from extreme heat days forcing shutdowns on manufacturing or construction sites; stranded assets such as rail and haulage lines damaged by floods; damage to physical assets and infrastructure vulnerability caused by storms and bushfires damaging electricity infrastructure. These cascading effects can impair production, logistics and service delivery, amplifying operational and financial risks across all sectors.
The rising cost of insurance is a well-known consequence of increasing physical risks, and insurers – long aware of climate change impacts – have been recalibrating underwriting models, pricing and coverage in response to more frequent and severe events. This includes tighter risk selection, higher premiums, and in some cases withdrawal of cover in high-risk areas. Although some insurers seek to incentivise resilience measures, recognition of individual mitigation efforts remains inconsistent, and affordability challenges persist.
In addition, lenders and investors are increasingly factoring physical climate risk into financing decisions. For example, banks are reassessing credit risk, as asset values and debt serviceability come under pressure, which could lead to higher borrowing costs, stricter covenants or reduced access to capital. Similarly, institutional investors are incorporating climate vulnerability into valuation models and portfolio strategies, leading to potential divestment from high-risk sectors and a reallocation of capital toward resilient or adaptive businesses. These shifts reflect a growing recognition that physical climate risks can materially impact both the cost and availability of finance, as well as long-term shareholder returns.
The 2025/26 financial year marks a significant turning point for Australian businesses, with Group 1 entities entering their first year of mandatory climate-related financial reporting under the Corporations Act 2001. This regime now requires companies to identify and disclose climate-related financial risks and opportunities alongside their traditional financial reporting, embedding climate considerations into a corporation’s governance and strategy.
For more information on the sustainability reporting regime, see our recent article.
Regulators are also sharpening their focus on misleading environmental and sustainability claims. The ACCC has increased enforcement on greenwashing, and ASIC continues to pursue enforcement action against misleading ESG disclosures in financial products. APRA has also reinforced its expectations for climate risk management in governance and disclosure, while the Clean Energy Regulator is continuing to monitor compliance with carbon credit and offset schemes. Together, these actions signal that sustainability claims and climate-related representations will face heightened regulatory scrutiny across multiple fronts.
Also at the national level, the Commonwealth Government has announced that its 2035 emissions reduction target will be a 62-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels, following advice from the Climate Change Authority in its 2035 Emissions Reduction Targets Report. This target builds on the legislated 43% reduction by 2030 and sets the trajectory towards net zero by 2050. The accompanying Net Zero Plan released in September 2025 outlines sectoral decarbonisation pathways and includes several major funding commitments.
State and Territory initiatives are also evolving. For example, in New South Wales, the Environment Protection Authority consulted on proposed climate change-related conditions to be included in environmental licences for certain activities and the Courts are applying heightened scrutiny to climate impacts in planning approvals for new or expanded facilities (see for example the decision of the NSW Court of Appeal in DAMSHEG v MACH Energy, which will now be considered by the High Court following an appeal by MACH Energy).
Together, these developments demonstrate an ongoing shift in Australia’s regulatory landscape, embedding climate considerations into core business strategy and compliance. Companies that act early to align with these requirements will be better positioned to manage risk, avoid regulatory pitfalls, and capture emerging opportunities in a low-carbon economy.
Developments in the broader economy will also need to be monitored, as the shift away from fossil fuels has the potential to redefine local industries. On 12 December 2025 the NSW Net Zero Commission released a “spotlight report” in respect of the emissions profile of the coal mining industry and its role in the NSW economy. The report’s key findings include:
If these recommendations are adopted they foreshadow a possibly radical restructuring of the industry in NSW. The issues for the State of NSW are material given coal mining’s direct and indirect contribution to employment and Gross State Product but perhaps most significantly its direct and indirect contribution to the Gross Regional Product of numerous regions across NSW.
International consideration of the legal challenges posed by climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts continued to develop during 2025, with the International Court of Justice delivering an advisory opinion on states’ obligations regarding climate change, reinforcing the expectation that developed countries demonstrate leadership in emissions reduction and adaptation.
International engagement is also extending into domestic litigation. For example, the UN Special Rapporteur on the human right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment has recently sought to join as amicus curae in proceedings in Australia concerning the North West Shelf project, signalling that global human rights and climate governance bodies are actively monitoring Australian decisions. Similarly, the recent World Heritage listing of Murujuga underscores the intersection of cultural heritage and climate considerations in project approvals with Australia’s international environmental obligations.
Moving into 2026, Australia will play a leading role in shaping international discourse on global mitigation and adaptation, as it assumes the role of President of Negotiations at COP31 in Türkiye, with the Pacific nations to also host a ‘pre-COP’. Australian companies, particularly those operating globally, will need to continue to monitor these developments, and consider how international norms and scrutiny will influence investor expectations, litigation exposure and strategic positioning.
Technological advancements and AI have significant potential to assist businesses in creating efficiencies and streamlining, including in estimating its greenhouse gas emissions. A number of products are now available in the market to offer tech solutions to carbon footprint accounting, while other tech providers are offering products which enable customers of their technology to estimate their scope 3 emissions based on usage of that product.
Technological advancements may also be a potential solution by which a reporting entity may be able to decrease its emissions. However, the increased use of technology comes at a hidden environmental cost, particularly with energy intensive developments such as generative AI. As businesses continue to increase reliance on technology, ongoing monitoring of scope 3 emissions from data usage, cloud storage and IT infrastructure will become increasingly important.
Climate and environmental issues are becoming increasingly interrelated to the financial aspects of a business, including through mandatory climate related reporting, ethical investors, activist shareholders and a changing consumer base. While this poses new challenges, it also bring new opportunities and could open the door for businesses that are able to adapt and meet the demands of a changing market.
Similarly, as scientific knowledge improves, we have seen an increased recognition of the interdependencies within our environment and the way in which environmental and climate issues intersect. This increases the complexity involved in seeking to address any one issue, but also provides new opportunities to recognise the impact of environmental improvements or initiatives on multiple fronts. This includes, for example, the first methodology established under the new Nature Repair Market, which is compatible with the existing carbon credit scheme, enabling eligible projects to be recognised in both the biodiversity and carbon markets.
While Australian businesses are only just now grappling with the new mandatory climate-related reporting regime (discussed above), new topics are already on the horizon. Nature-related disclosures are emerging as a key focus internationally, with the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) taking on responsibility from the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures for developing standards for nature-related reporting (as it previously did from the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures in relation to climate reporting). This shift signals that businesses will no doubt in the future need to also consider biodiversity and ecosystem impacts alongside climate risks in their governance and reporting processes.
2025 has been a big year of change for many businesses and 2026 will bring new challenges with it. Navigating this change through increasing uncertainty and complexity will pose different challenges for each business. However, the impacts of our changing climate will not be short-lived, so investing in meeting these challenges early will only better serve an entity into the future.
Use our simple checklist to consider what you need to know.
Patrick is the head of the Infrastructure Sector at Maddocks and an internationally recognised expert in development and environmental law.
View profileRon has extensive experience advising on corporate, commercial and financing transactions. Ron has been involved in many of Australia’s largest and most complex M&A transactions.
View profileAlanna specialises in legal strategy, advisory and project delivery across the energy transition, emergency management, environment, and integrity sectors.
View profileSamantha specialises in environmental law and advises Government and private sector clients on a range of matters, including biodiversity and environmental liabilities.
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